I Don't Doubt it One Bit

I read this in the paper the other day, and then looked into it further with an online research of "Associated Press Basketball Refs".  I found this [article] and this quote:

"We'd like them to have no memory and strictly call what's going on on the court," Anderson said. "But part of this is, if I'm a ref, I want everyone to think I'm fair and if I call 10 fouls on one team and two on the other, people are going to think something's going on here. It's sort of subconscious. And it points out one of the biggest problems with basketball is that it's a very hard game to officiate."


Why don't I doubt this one bit?  Because I think it's true and it's real.  I ask you to do some homework throughout this season.  When you read the box scores in the paper for NHL games, take a look at the power plays.  It will be real easy to read.  Let's look at some from this past week (Power Play Goals/Power Play Opportunities -- the home team is listed second):

1. 0 for 1, 0 for 2
2. 2 for 3, 1 for 4
3. 0 for 4, 1 for 6
4. 0 for 0, 0 for 4
5. 0 for 2, 1 for 6
6. 0 for 3, 0 for 4
7. 1 for 3, 0 for 1
8. 1 for 4, 0 for 5
9. 0 for 3, 1 for 2
10. 1 for 2, 1 for 5

Average for 10 most recent games:


Visitor = 2.5 power plays per game (averaging 1/2 goals per game on PP)


Home = 3.9 power plays per game (averaging 1/2 goals per game on PP!, despite more opportunities)


Well...so what?!  Huh???


How about this...

• the marbles are usually always very even
• the home team usually gets more power plays than the visitors
• the refs are really good at making this a reality for game to game, season to season

I realize that I have sampled a whopping 10 ten games here, hardly a representative sample.  I don't really want to crunch numbers beyond that.  I don't want to do that because (a) I want you to watch the power plays throughout the rest of this season, and (b) I know from my own experience that the "keep the marbles even" is true.


All I am going to say any further is this...good coaches know this.  They know that if a series of three or four penalties are called against their team, that chances are the next call will go in their favor.  They also know that in the end, everything usually evens out.  You see, whenever I have "rung a team up for a bunch in a row" and I have some coach just come "un-glued" with me, deep down I really feel like saying, "Just wait, Buddy.  Things will work out in the end."  [Really want to see more thoughts about this? - click here].


Where did I first learn this?  From one of my mentors.  


Do you want to argue with me?  Send me an email at: info@ultimateofficials.com


I've got loads of data and research to support my points.  I'll just use that data to ensure there is a fair and equitable playing field (wouldn't want to tip the scales in favor of one side or the other, eh? -- After all, there's two teams!!).